A Kilometer-Scale Coupled Atmosphere-Wave Forecasting System for the European Arctic

Abstract Accurately simulating the interactions between components of a coupled Earth modelling system (atmosphere, sea-ice, and wave) on kilometer-scale resolution is new challenge in operational numerical weather prediction. It difficult due to complexity interactive mechanisms, limited accuracy model scarcity observations available for assessing relevant processes. This study presents newly developed convective-scale atmosphere-wave forecasting European Arctic. The HARMONIE-AROME configuration ALADIN-HIRLAM prediction spectral wave WAVEWATCH III using OASIS3 coupling toolkit. We analyze impact representing through uncoupled forecasts domain with 2.5 km spatial resolution. In order assess model’s uncertainties we compare 48-hour against satellite observational products such as Advanced Scatterometer 10 m wind speed, altimeter based significant height. fully results closely match both satellite-based speed height well surface pressure measurements from selected coastal station observation sites. Furthermore, contains smaller standard deviation errors 10m parameters when compared forecasts. Atmosphere reduces short term forecast error variability greatest benefit occurring high conditions.